Lady Patriots Still Likely Playoff-Bound

It's a bye Wednesday for Central Florida in its Mid-Florida Conference schedule, with both men's and women's teams enjoying a needed week of recuperation from Saturday's unpleasant homecoming sweep to Daytona State. So this is a fine opportunity to break down the teams' chances of reaching Marianna (that's the annual site of the state tournament, and the reason there's a seemingly random map to the left of your screen). I looked at the men's prospects on Monday. Now, here's where the Lady Patriots stand.

Despite consecutive Mid-Florida Conference losses, Central Florida (16-9, 2-3) is still very likely to be a state tournament qualifier. What the Lady Patriots won't be, however, is MFC champions. Santa Fe (17-7, 6-0) has clinched the conference title already. With three games remaining, even if CF or Daytona State (12-11, 2-3) were to tie Santa Fe at 6-3, Santa Fe has already won the season series from each team.

But here's why CF is still very much in line for the postseason. Given the quirky rules governing the FCCAA, three of the MFC's four teams will reach the postseason. Santa Fe's got the first spot, leaving CF, Daytona and last-place FSC-Jacksonville (6-17, 0-4) to settle the final two slots. FSC-J has lost to all three conference rivals by double digits in the past month, so the smart money is on CF and Daytona to cruise to the playoffs. But mathematically they're still alive, and in fact just one game out of second place in the loss column thanks to an oddball schedule that has seen them play two fewer games than any other conference school. If CF continues its slump and loses to FSC-J on Saturday (a 5:30 pm tip at our place), we've got a race on our hands. If CF takes care of business, it would take a major FSC-J late-season rally, coupled with a full-fledged Lady Patriot collapse, to keep the good girls home in March.